Preparations for a Third Jewish Temple Edited by Lambert Dolphin from various sources By the rivers of Babylon, there we sat down, yea, we wept when we remembered Zion. We hung out harps upon the willows in the midst of it. For there those who carried us away captive required of us a song.
Explore the latest strategic trends, research and analysis From Ukraine to Syria to the South China Sea, the world is experiencing a spike in geopolitical crises.
Yet markets have for the most part been remarkably unperturbed by recent events. Bad as they may be, according to this view, the flare-ups in Ukraine, Syria and elsewhere are not manifestations of some paradigm shift threatening to set the global economy ablaze.
Rather, they are to be treated as worrying but temporary blips on the radar. Is the business community correct in staying so cool-headed, or could investors be missing a fundamental transformation in the way our world works?
The risks from underestimating the implications of geopolitics on the geo-economic landscape and on businesses, an area in which numbers and probabilities are after all tricky to assign, are significant.
With the frequency of crises increasing, we should consider the possibility that there may be a signal amid the noise; that our world may be changing for the long term. While a rise in geopolitical tensions need not necessarily lead to de-globalization, much ink has been spilt over the rising prospect of such a world, marked by a gradual breakdown of the geo-economic commons on which we rely, from safe seas to open skies and clear communication channels.
Despite noticing this emerging possibility, however, few observers have thought through what such a world would look like and what it could mean for our daily transactions as decision-makers in business, government and civil society.
Doing so has become critical in light of recent events, and foresight can be a most valuable tool to help us prepare for a fast-changing environment.
Imagine that restrictions on physical travel extend to the virtual world: Imagine that international law has broken down, the memory of a so-called international order fading into the distance. Mechanisms to cooperate on global issues such as climate change are long deceased.
Instead, relationships among countries are based on dozens of fragmented and overlapping alliances, pragmatically oriented to specific purposes: These alliances are based on soft affinities and ideologies, rather than on objective factors such as historical trade links or geographical proximity.
They shift often and quickly. Welcome to the de-globalized tomorrow. The route to this imagined future does not involve anybody deciding that de-globalization would be a good idea — yet it could still emerge from the unconscious choices of political decision-makers. Think about how even greater protectionism than we see today could spread: In a difficult economic context, the path of least resistance can be to prioritize short-term national interests over long-term global ones, as has been seen many times in recent years.
Political tensions can lead to face-offs and tit-for-tat sanctions, even when decision-makers recognize, intellectually, that each country is inflicting economic self-harm. The path to a de-globalized world is not about small attacks on the global order by exogenous non-state actors — on the contrary, such attacks would be more likely to rally a coalition to protect our prized geo-economic commons.
Nor is de-globalization merely the much-discussed shift from the global to the regional; so far, regionalism has tended to sustain an economic order broadly compatible with its global umbrella.
Nor is what we are talking about here merely a new cold war, for the de-globalized world we explore would involve not just two or three blocs but multiple overlapping alliances. This raises the question, what will keep them together, what will maintain coherence in their management of global political and economic affairs once these emerging countries reach a relative level of political and economic maturation?
Indeed, we are already seeing strong differences in approaches among the BRICS, and they represent only five of countless smaller rising markets.
Such a future may seem chaotic, confusing and depressingly gloomy. It would also be deeply unprofitable to most. But none of that makes it implausible.
Just think of the many signposts that already point to such a world being well within the boundaries of plausibility. First, they are mere filters on the global internet, not distinctly separate infrastructure projects to dismember or otherwise replace the world wide web. Second, they have for the most part been imposed by authoritarian regimes for reasons of censorship, rather than being the legitimate choices of democratic societies.
Discussions about developing a national internet are also being taken seriously in Germany and other democratic nations.
The internet is not the only open communication system vital to the geo-economic commons. Access to the SWIFT payment system is critical for a country to function effectively in the global economy. In the past, only the likes of North Korea and Iran have been excluded from it. But, again, change is in the air as more recent calls to exclude Russia, though rebuked, have highlighted that targeting a member of the G20 — the very group meant to be managing the global economy — was no longer out of bounds.
Even the mere thought of such moves could create a self-fulfilling prophecy in which SWIFT and its cousin institutions begin to break apart as countries seek to pre-emptively escape the leverage represented by threats of exclusion and begin creating their own parallel cooperation schemes.Home > Local > News > Italy's new leaders get tough on migrants as another boat Italy's new leaders get tough on migrants as another boat with on board headed towards Sicily.
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Publication does not imply endorsement of views by the World Economic Forum. I'm going to talk today about energy and climate.
And that might seem a bit surprising, because my full-time work at the foundation is mostly about vaccines and seeds, about the things that we need to invent and deliver to help the poorest two billion live better lives.
We’re headed towards a ‘post-antibiotic era,’ World Health Organization warns the world is headed for a post-antibiotic era, in which common infections and minor injuries which have been.
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The US has embarked on a military adventure, "a long war", which threatens the future of humanity.
US-NATO weapons of mass destruction are portrayed as instruments of peace. Mini-nukes are said to be "harmless to the surrounding civilian population".